BNEF: Energy Transition Trends

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  • 00:00Hi I’m Liz and the Moto from Limerick any F speaking from some fellow Brazil. I’m the project manager for the Global Climate Group which is one of the big enough being asked largest projects and looks at markets emerging market attractiveness for clean energy transition. This is a fully public resource. So if there’s anyone interested on the topic I recommend you check it out. And I’m Australian author of the report How would Transition Trends 2020 that we publish a couple weeks ago. And today I’m here to tell you a brief story of power sector transition over the past that could show you some interesting findings from 2019 and also to hopefully help you raise some questions on what we can do better and how we can get to what we have committed for faster . The global power sector went through a massive expansion in transformation over the past decade . Power production since 2010 jumped 29 percent and global installed capacity is 44 percent . But it’s really important to know that despite all the commitments that countries and business have made possible for you. Is this you. The main source of power generation liberty and coal alone accounts for over a third of all power produced globally. In 2019 . It’s also important to highlight that most of it is global power sector expansion as well as the coal expansion is actually a result of growth in emerging markets population and economy . In fact if we look at over the past decade emerging markets power consumption has jumped over 50 percent while in developed nations the same has it started the global power consumption . Consumption has stayed pretty much flat . But there is some really good financial highlight from this day . First off then and one of the most interesting is the fact that . Global clean energy capacity and especially wind and solar capacity is growing really fast and now accounts for most of the power capacity is still worth it . In 2019 you specifically went on solar power alone account for two thirds of all the capacity installed in the globe up from just 24 percent in 2010. We look at renewables all together including hydro and other technologies . They account for three partners of all the power capacity added to the global grid in 2019 up from just 18 percent in 2010. And because of that fossil fuel has dropped as a share of the capacity commission every year to just 25 percent last year. To give you some reference the wording stole two hundred sixty five gigawatts of new capacity in 2009. And this is a lot more than what Germany has available right now . And this power sector expansion and cleaner energy expansion is the result of a quick job in technology prices . Modules for example based on this that I think is the most important dataset in the cleaners sector has dropped given modules have dropped 88 percent in price since 2010 and this is result of an experienced growth of almost 9 percent. This means basically that every time that field capacity has doubled the TV module prices drop almost 9 percent . Wind Technologies has also shown significant drop and significant progress . The price of wind turbines has declined 49 percent since 2010 and we also see an experienced curve of 11 percent. And the wind sector is really important to highlight that not only when sees the two rising prices falling but it’s also sees a reading increase. Really big increase in efficiency of the technology which means that we can generate more powers more power with less capacity . A second really interesting trend that’s also a result of a drop in technology prize is the fact that not only we’re adding more technology but the technologies are also spreading to more and more nations worldwide . If we look at your thousand nineteen we see that a third of the world’s nations have installed more solar than any other technology. In other words turned up the world’s nations last year have chosen solar as their top technology choice . If we catch a thousand ten for example we can clearly see that European countries were the only ones making this choice European countries were the only ones installing more wind or solar than than any other technology. And this is mainly basically because those technologies were so much more expensive than fossil fuel technologies which is gas coal or oil . Therefore those countries had to implement. Public policy to incentivize the technologies. Specifically they had to implement feeding tariffs which are basically a premium paid to those developers that choose to install and sharing power with those technologies . This includes those nations include Germany Italy and many others . In 2014 we’ve just a couple of exceptions literally. Wind and solar are worse two more expensive and prosecute acknowledges . However we saw the clean energy policy is spreading to more countries . So more nations including emerging markets had decided to implement . Clean energy policies that make renewables attractive for investors . And as a result of that we saw more countries more emerging markets choosing clean energy technologies choosing when or choosing solar as their top technologies installed in 2014 . This includes Mexico Chile and South Africa. For example . But in 2008 19 we saw this picture completely changed. We saw big transformation . And this is because now wind and solar have become most of the world cheaper than any other technology and cheaper than fossil fuel technologies specifically. In fact Indiana in our NYSE work. We estimate that now two thirds of the globe live in countries where wind or solar or both are the cheapest option of new power. And this is reading this clean energy revolution this clean energy transformation. As a result of that we not only see countries installing more clean energy capacity in major markets installing clean energy cost more than any other technology. But we also see solar specifically reaching nations that were before dominated by fossil fuel technologies or by other sources of technology . This includes for example Colombia Bolivia Nigeria and even South Africa . And those two trends the fast growing and spreading of clean energy technologies especially wind and solar have led to two power generation trends that is extremely relevant for energy transition conversations. First one of them is the fact that in 2019 the word most of the new generation most of the generation change came from wind and solar. And this is the first time ever we have never seen that happen before. And the second is that we actually as a blow produce less coal than we did in 2008 . Specifically co-generation dropped 3 percent between 2008 and 2009 to . As a result of that we also saw power sector emissions dropping a little bit. One point five percent in 2019 from 2018 . And this is despite the fact that . CO2 emissions from the power sector is actually rising in Asia almost every year in which 37 percent of the total in 2009 . But with all those good news in mind there is something that I really need to point on and that I really would like everyone to remember. Yes reading good progress. Yes. He is spreading and growing a lot every year. But the coal capacity worldwide is also growing by a lot . And this is especially because of Asian markets. And before I mentioned the emerging markets have been leading the power sector growth. The power generation growth and the issues that those markets are actually having to commission or deciding to commission co capacity to make part of their demand . And of course it’s important to acknowledge the progress that some developed nations that she was in. Some many European countries have made in terms of the commission core capacity . Those markets together developed countries together have retired over 100 gigawatts of capacity since 2010 but that has not been off and has not been even close enough to offset that over 600 gigawatts of coal capacity that was added to developing nations . Since 2010 . And before I finish this presentation there’s something that’s very important that we keep in mind as well which is for 2020 we do expect . Power sector generation we do expect co-generation and we expect as a result CO2 emissions would fall . And this is a result of the emergency responses that we saw most of the countries in the world implementing a result of cutting 90 . But the jobs . As they are a result of a very unique year they do not necessarily represent a trend . So it’s important to keep in mind and your knowledge is so we don’t get too adventurous that . And if we do not want to see emissions falling further and falling fast we need to continue the trends that I showed earlier. Continue growing the capacity continue spreading clean energy generation and clean energy technologies to more nations . But we also need to make sure that those trends move further and faster over this new decade . And finish I would like to leave the question to you all along . How can we do this. How can we as individuals business and countries make sure that we are committed to this friends to get where we have committed to get in terms of climate change . Thank you . I’m available to answer any questions if you would like to reach out to me directly or just you know more about this study .

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